March Dispatches
Is travel demand to the U.S. collapsing?
Notes from the Runway
A good urban park is magical. You can lose yourself on their trails and byways; in their woods and glades. There are times when I run the Western Ridge Trail in Rock Creek Park that I forget I am in the middle DC, losing myself in the solitude of the trees and concentrating on the track ahead. A recent turn through Munich’s Englischer Garten proved a delightful mix of classic English landscape architecture and urban oasis, especially the further north one goes from the historic center. I never forgot I was in the city but it did feel a world away from the metropolis around me. A delightful spot for an early spring run.
Words
There are widespread concerns of a drop (collapse?) in transatlantic travel demand as the Trump administration’s policies make some Europeans think twice about visiting the U.S. Lufthansa’s CEO said this past week that they “don’t see any impact on the booking situation right now,” but the airline’s peer, Swiss, is seeing leisure demand soften quickly. A blip or the canary in the coal mine? (The Points Guy)
"There's a lot of frustration in Canada." The tense situation between the U.S. and Canada has some (many?) Canadian travelers rethinking trips. Canadian airlines — the most exposed to the market — are watching the situation closely. (The Points Guy)
The potential drop in inbound visitors comes just as the TSA’s long-awaited One-Stop Security pilot debuts on eastbound flights to London and both Atlanta and Dallas-Fort Worth. The program, which is expected westbound this summer, allows connecting travelers to bypass a second security check when they land at Heathrow or in the two U.S. gateways. (The Washington Post)
International travel demand isn’t the only concern for U.S. airlines. (The Points Guy)
JetBlue unveiled $100 million in concessions-dominated upgrades to Terminal 5 at New York’s JFK the other week. As for the airline’s eagerly-awaited lounges, President Marty St. George said: "We're not going to be successful by imitating Delta. We just need to be the best JetBlue we can be.” Or, JetBlue’s anti-Delta lounge. (The Points Guy)
Five years ago, Southwest executives told the Denver City Council they needed 16 more gates at the city’s airport to do more of, well, everything they already did, or “adding depth and breadth to the markets we serve.” Now, the carrier is cutting flights in Denver. It’s still larger than in 2019 but barely. What’s up with Southwest in the Mile High City? (The Points Guy)
Austin’s boom continues, more options to Mexico and Europe, and new longer-distance routes takeoff from Washington’s Reagan National Airport. Some exciting new routes launching in March. (Travel+Leisure)
Spirit is headed to Chattanooga and Columbia, S.C. Avianca is adding another new Miami route. And Delta has a special centenary livery. (The Points Guy)
Readings
Of the many takes on Southwest’s about face on checked bag fees, a few stood out to me. Brett Snyder called out the very real competitive challenges the airline now faces:
“Why would anyone fly [Southwest] now? It falls back to price and schedule, and schedule is where Southwest does best… It does have its own fortresses around the US, primarily secondary airports in big cities (Love Field, Midway, Hobby, Oakland, Baltimore…) and all those former midwestern hubs where others have left (St Louis, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh…) But this doesn’t leave it with any notable growth opportunity. It no longer holds a significant advantage for attracting customers.”
Or as
put it, Southwest is now “commodity flying.”Are India’s new airports the prettiest in the world? That is, of course, in the eye of the beholder but they definitely are building some beautiful terminals. The Economist looks at the gorgeous new structures in Bangalore, Goa, and Mumbai.
TNMT published an interesting analysis of airlines’ startup investments (think venture capital). KLM, ANA, JetBlue, Alaska, and United led the industry last year with the majority of investments made in sustainability-focused companies (55%). “Beyond gaining access to cutting-edge technologies, startup investments offer the potential for exponential returns, the ability to build a credible growth story beyond an airline’s core business, and a strategic edge in an industry.”
Northeast Alliance 2.0? American filed a Writ of Certiorari with the Supreme Court to invalidate the 2023 lower court ruling that ended its pact with JetBlue. JetBlue is looking for a new partner and they haven’t (publicly) ruled out American.
No one should be shocked that leading eVTOL developers Archer Aviation and Joby are likely to introduce their craft first in the United Arab Emirates, and not the U.S.
Electric aircraft developer Eviation’s collapse was "a manufactured crisis” by the company’s majority shareholders, billionaire Richard Chandler’s Clermont Group, said one of its co-founders. The company's implosion is a blow to the emerging sector of emissions-free green aviation, reported Dominic Gates at The Seattle Times.
“It was always clear that Trump's democracy-dismantling project would be coming for the state's high-speed rail, something he openly denigrated throughout his last presidency. But with Elon Musk on board, the mission has become supercharged,” wrote Alissa Walker in Torched. Read about the Trump administration’s thinly-veiled plan to cut federal funding from California’s High-Speed Rail project.
Speaking of CAHSR — a desperately needed line but also one of the more politically gerrymandered —
wrote that he believes its original sin lies in the routing.I love San Francisco’s Cable Cars. Monocle’s Christoper Lord recently visited the “incredible feat of engineering.”
“We’re still here, still creating, still working; we just need more people to support our practices and causes." Los Angeles is open, and eager, for business, wrote
.On a lighter note, Elizabeth Endicott wrote a lovely essay in The Atlantic on the joys of e-bike parents (🙋🏻♂️)
And, for those looking for their next book, let me recommend
’ recent book Carmageddon. “The problem is not cars themselves. It is privileging cars over any other form of transport, so that… we are forced to rely on, day-to-day. The problem is building our homes and our cities in such a way that pavement, rather than people, comes first.” (TBC, I don’t hate cars, I just think society at large should rely on them less)
What I’m Listening To
“Architecture is always political and you can’t separate the two. What you build, where you build it, who’s it for, and how it expresses your values — it’s all political.” A good 99 Percent Invisible episode on Nazi architecture, and the parallels to today.
“Boom is working in opposition to the most durable single trend in all of flying since the jet age began… [airlines want] faster [than turboprops], better, cheaper, not higher, faster, farther,” Jon Ostrower said on The Air Show podcast of the would be supersonic passenger transport developer. Also, of a likely $8-10 billion in development costs, Boom has raised less than $1 billion. Yikes.
I recently joined Colorado Matters host Ryan Warner to discuss United's future in Denver, Southwest’s assigned seating plans, aviation safety, and Boom. Is United’s headquarters moving to Denver? “There’s nothing that’s ‘Yes.’ There’s nothing that’s ‘No.’ It’s optionality,” CEO Scott Kirby told The Denver Post last year.
There’s just something really inspiring and cool about landing on another celestial body. Firefly Aerospace just did it on the moon with an uncrewed lander.